{ "source": { "nom": "turf.bzh - la corde au plat français", "url": "https://www.turf.bzh/suivi-corde-pmu.php", "perimetre": "Plat, hippodromes français uniquement. La base n'ayant pas de colonne de pays, le périmètre vient d'une liste de 53 hippodromes. L'outre-mer est exclu.", "historique": { "debut": "2025-11-05", "fin": "2026-11-03" }, "courses": 4012, "partants": 44123, "mise_a_jour": "2026-11-05T04:36:13+01:00" }, "methode": { "position": "Rang de la corde parmi les chevaux RÉELLEMENT au départ. Les non-partants sortent du champ : 30 % des courses en comptent au moins un, et les garder fausserait la part de tous les autres.", "part_attendue": "1 divisé par le nombre de partants pour le gagnant, 3 (ou 2 sous 8 partants) divisé par le nombre de partants pour le placé, sommé course par course. C'est ce qu'on observerait si la position ne changeait rien.", "rapport": "Réussites observées divisées par cette part attendue. 1,00 signifie exactement à sa part.", "ecarts_types": "Écart à la part attendue rapporté à l'écart-type d'une loi de Poisson-binomiale.", "seuil": "Corrigé du nombre de positions regardées (Bonferroni). Ici 2.96 pour 16 positions. Sous 200 courses, aucune position n'est conclue.", "pourquoi_pas_le_taux_brut": "Une position élevée n'existe que dans les grands pelotons, où la chance de chacun est plus faible. Le taux brut décroît donc avec le numéro même si la position ne changeait rien." }, "filtres_appliques": { "hippodrome": null, "distance": null, "periode_jours": null, "quinte_seulement": false }, "amplitude": { "taux_brut": { "de": 4.85, "a": 12.02, "facteur": 2.48 }, "rapport_a_la_part": { "de": 0.74, "a": 1.2, "facteur": 1.61 }, "note": "L'écart entre ces deux facteurs mesure ce que la taille des pelotons apporte à elle seule dans la dispersion des taux bruts." }, "par_bande_de_peloton": [ { "bande": "le cinquième intérieur", "courses": 10428, "rapport_gagnant": 1.0207, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 0.68, "rapport_place": 1.0294, "ecarts_types_place": 1.8, "lecture": "dans la normale" }, { "bande": "le deuxième cinquième", "courses": 8082, "rapport_gagnant": 1.131, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 3.71, "rapport_place": 1.0766, "ecarts_types_place": 4.08, "lecture": "gagne plus souvent que prévu" }, { "bande": "le milieu du peloton", "courses": 8014, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9613, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -1.1, "rapport_place": 0.9911, "ecarts_types_place": -0.47, "lecture": "dans la normale" }, { "bande": "le quatrième cinquième", "courses": 8082, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9142, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -2.43, "rapport_place": 0.9346, "ecarts_types_place": -3.48, "lecture": "dans la normale" }, { "bande": "le cinquième extérieur", "courses": 9517, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9762, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.74, "rapport_place": 0.9728, "ecarts_types_place": -1.59, "lecture": "dans la normale" } ], "par_position": [ { "position": 1, "courses": 4012, "victoires": 381, "places": 1078, "taux_gagnant": 9.5, "taux_place": 26.87, "victoires_attendues": 401.96, "places_attendues": 1102.88, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9479, "rapport_place": 0.9774, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -1.11, "ecarts_types_place": -0.89, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 2, "courses": 4012, "victoires": 421, "places": 1142, "taux_gagnant": 10.49, "taux_place": 28.46, "victoires_attendues": 401.96, "places_attendues": 1102.88, "rapport_gagnant": 1.0474, "rapport_place": 1.0355, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 1.01, "ecarts_types_place": 1.4, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 3, "courses": 4011, "victoires": 482, "places": 1199, "taux_gagnant": 12.02, "taux_place": 29.89, "victoires_attendues": 401.46, "places_attendues": 1101.88, "rapport_gagnant": 1.2006, "rapport_place": 1.0881, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 4.27, "ecarts_types_place": 3.47, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "gagne plus souvent que prévu", "lecture_place": "se place plus souvent que prévu" }, { "position": 4, "courses": 4009, "victoires": 409, "places": 1134, "taux_gagnant": 10.2, "taux_place": 28.29, "victoires_attendues": 400.79, "places_attendues": 1100.54, "rapport_gagnant": 1.0205, "rapport_place": 1.0304, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 0.43, "ecarts_types_place": 1.2, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 5, "courses": 3989, "victoires": 404, "places": 1132, "taux_gagnant": 10.13, "taux_place": 28.38, "victoires_attendues": 395.79, "places_attendues": 1090.54, "rapport_gagnant": 1.0207, "rapport_place": 1.038, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 0.44, "ecarts_types_place": 1.49, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 6, "courses": 3904, "victoires": 366, "places": 1062, "taux_gagnant": 9.38, "taux_place": 27.2, "victoires_attendues": 378.79, "places_attendues": 1056.54, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9662, "rapport_place": 1.0052, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.69, "ecarts_types_place": 0.2, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 7, "courses": 3713, "victoires": 330, "places": 996, "taux_gagnant": 8.89, "taux_place": 26.82, "victoires_attendues": 346.96, "places_attendues": 992.88, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9511, "rapport_place": 1.0031, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.96, "ecarts_types_place": 0.12, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 8, "courses": 3377, "victoires": 286, "places": 886, "taux_gagnant": 8.47, "taux_place": 26.24, "victoires_attendues": 298.96, "places_attendues": 896.88, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9567, "rapport_place": 0.9879, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.79, "ecarts_types_place": -0.43, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 9, "courses": 3001, "victoires": 233, "places": 695, "taux_gagnant": 7.76, "taux_place": 23.16, "victoires_attendues": 251.96, "places_attendues": 755.88, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9248, "rapport_place": 0.9195, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -1.25, "ecarts_types_place": -2.58, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 10, "courses": 2569, "victoires": 201, "places": 602, "taux_gagnant": 7.82, "taux_place": 23.43, "victoires_attendues": 203.96, "places_attendues": 611.88, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9855, "rapport_place": 0.9839, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.22, "ecarts_types_place": -0.46, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 11, "courses": 2141, "victoires": 158, "places": 462, "taux_gagnant": 7.38, "taux_place": 21.58, "victoires_attendues": 161.16, "places_attendues": 483.48, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9804, "rapport_place": 0.9556, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.26, "ecarts_types_place": -1.11, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 12, "courses": 1778, "victoires": 124, "places": 376, "taux_gagnant": 6.97, "taux_place": 21.15, "victoires_attendues": 128.16, "places_attendues": 384.48, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9676, "rapport_place": 0.978, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.38, "ecarts_types_place": -0.49, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 13, "courses": 1401, "victoires": 102, "places": 281, "taux_gagnant": 7.28, "taux_place": 20.06, "victoires_attendues": 96.74, "places_attendues": 290.23, "rapport_gagnant": 1.0544, "rapport_place": 0.9682, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 0.55, "ecarts_types_place": -0.61, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 14, "courses": 1069, "victoires": 53, "places": 180, "taux_gagnant": 4.96, "taux_place": 16.84, "victoires_attendues": 71.2, "places_attendues": 213.61, "rapport_gagnant": 0.7443, "rapport_place": 0.8427, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -2.23, "ecarts_types_place": -2.57, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 15, "courses": 737, "victoires": 47, "places": 130, "taux_gagnant": 6.38, "taux_place": 17.64, "victoires_attendues": 47.49, "places_attendues": 142.47, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9897, "rapport_place": 0.9125, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.07, "ecarts_types_place": -1.16, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" }, { "position": 16, "courses": 371, "victoires": 18, "places": 59, "taux_gagnant": 4.85, "taux_place": 15.9, "victoires_attendues": 23.09, "places_attendues": 69.27, "rapport_gagnant": 0.7796, "rapport_place": 0.8518, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -1.09, "ecarts_types_place": -1.37, "seuil_retenu": 2.96, "lecture_gagnant": "dans la normale", "lecture_place": "dans la normale" } ], "par_hippodrome": [ { "hippodrome": "Deauville", "courses": 465, "partants": 5584, "bandes": [ { "bande": "le cinquième intérieur", "partants": 1304, "taux_gagnant": 7.67, "taux_place": 24.85, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9079, "rapport_place": 1.0252, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -1.01, "ecarts_types_place": 0.52 }, { "bande": "le deuxième cinquième", "partants": 1037, "taux_gagnant": 10.03, "taux_place": 25.84, "rapport_gagnant": 1.2223, "rapport_place": 1.0845, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 2.15, "ecarts_types_place": 1.54 }, { "bande": "le milieu du peloton", "partants": 1028, "taux_gagnant": 8.66, "taux_place": 24.61, "rapport_gagnant": 1.0457, "rapport_place": 1.0214, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 0.44, "ecarts_types_place": 0.39 }, { "bande": "le quatrième cinquième", "partants": 1037, "taux_gagnant": 7.43, "taux_place": 22.28, "rapport_gagnant": 0.905, "rapport_place": 0.9348, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.92, "ecarts_types_place": -1.18 }, { "bande": "le cinquième extérieur", "partants": 1178, "taux_gagnant": 8.15, "taux_place": 22.92, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9641, "rapport_place": 0.9407, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.38, "ecarts_types_place": -1.17 } ] }, { "hippodrome": "Chantilly", "courses": 398, "partants": 4687, "bandes": [ { "bande": "le cinquième intérieur", "partants": 1093, "taux_gagnant": 10.25, "taux_place": 26.17, "rapport_gagnant": 1.1832, "rapport_place": 1.0686, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 1.88, "ecarts_types_place": 1.3 }, { "bande": "le deuxième cinquième", "partants": 863, "taux_gagnant": 8.46, "taux_place": 27, "rapport_gagnant": 1.0139, "rapport_place": 1.1248, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 0.12, "ecarts_types_place": 2.08 }, { "bande": "le milieu du peloton", "partants": 872, "taux_gagnant": 6.88, "taux_place": 23.17, "rapport_gagnant": 0.8175, "rapport_place": 0.955, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -1.64, "ecarts_types_place": -0.76 }, { "bande": "le quatrième cinquième", "partants": 863, "taux_gagnant": 7.88, "taux_place": 21.44, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9445, "rapport_place": 0.8931, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.49, "ecarts_types_place": -1.78 }, { "bande": "le cinquième extérieur", "partants": 996, "taux_gagnant": 8.43, "taux_place": 23.29, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9773, "rapport_place": 0.9487, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.22, "ecarts_types_place": -0.93 } ] }, { "hippodrome": "Saint-Cloud", "courses": 260, "partants": 2973, "bandes": [ { "bande": "le cinquième intérieur", "partants": 700, "taux_gagnant": 11.29, "taux_place": 28.14, "rapport_gagnant": 1.2674, "rapport_place": 1.1189, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 2.22, "ecarts_types_place": 1.84 }, { "bande": "le deuxième cinquième", "partants": 547, "taux_gagnant": 10.24, "taux_place": 25.96, "rapport_gagnant": 1.1898, "rapport_place": 1.0489, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 1.37, "ecarts_types_place": 0.66 }, { "bande": "le milieu du peloton", "partants": 543, "taux_gagnant": 7.18, "taux_place": 23.76, "rapport_gagnant": 0.8328, "rapport_place": 0.9544, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -1.2, "ecarts_types_place": -0.62 }, { "bande": "le quatrième cinquième", "partants": 547, "taux_gagnant": 7.5, "taux_place": 23.22, "rapport_gagnant": 0.8711, "rapport_place": 0.9381, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.93, "ecarts_types_place": -0.84 }, { "bande": "le cinquième extérieur", "partants": 636, "taux_gagnant": 7.23, "taux_place": 23.74, "rapport_gagnant": 0.8112, "rapport_place": 0.9378, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -1.5, "ecarts_types_place": -0.92 } ] }, { "hippodrome": "ParisLongchamp", "courses": 242, "partants": 2732, "bandes": [ { "bande": "le cinquième intérieur", "partants": 642, "taux_gagnant": 9.03, "taux_place": 29.44, "rapport_gagnant": 1.0024, "rapport_place": 1.1709, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 0.02, "ecarts_types_place": 2.54 }, { "bande": "le deuxième cinquième", "partants": 500, "taux_gagnant": 11.4, "taux_place": 29.8, "rapport_gagnant": 1.3073, "rapport_place": 1.2068, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 2.14, "ecarts_types_place": 2.68 }, { "bande": "le milieu du peloton", "partants": 503, "taux_gagnant": 8.15, "taux_place": 21.47, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9318, "rapport_place": 0.8629, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.48, "ecarts_types_place": -1.79 }, { "bande": "le quatrième cinquième", "partants": 500, "taux_gagnant": 8.4, "taux_place": 21, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9633, "rapport_place": 0.8504, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.26, "ecarts_types_place": -1.94 }, { "bande": "le cinquième extérieur", "partants": 587, "taux_gagnant": 7.5, "taux_place": 23, "rapport_gagnant": 0.8312, "rapport_place": 0.9092, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -1.3, "ecarts_types_place": -1.29 } ] }, { "hippodrome": "Marseille-Vivaux", "courses": 151, "partants": 1392, "bandes": [ { "bande": "le cinquième intérieur", "partants": 334, "taux_gagnant": 7.49, "taux_place": 25.75, "rapport_gagnant": 0.6827, "rapport_place": 0.8466, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -2.04, "ecarts_types_place": -1.86 }, { "bande": "le deuxième cinquième", "partants": 252, "taux_gagnant": 11.51, "taux_place": 32.14, "rapport_gagnant": 1.0724, "rapport_place": 1.0576, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 0.4, "ecarts_types_place": 0.61 }, { "bande": "le milieu du peloton", "partants": 245, "taux_gagnant": 8.57, "taux_place": 31.84, "rapport_gagnant": 0.7931, "rapport_place": 1.0415, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -1.13, "ecarts_types_place": 0.43 }, { "bande": "le quatrième cinquième", "partants": 252, "taux_gagnant": 14.68, "taux_place": 32.94, "rapport_gagnant": 1.3683, "rapport_place": 1.0837, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 2.03, "ecarts_types_place": 0.88 }, { "bande": "le cinquième extérieur", "partants": 309, "taux_gagnant": 12.62, "taux_place": 31.07, "rapport_gagnant": 1.1532, "rapport_place": 1.0175, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 0.95, "ecarts_types_place": 0.21 } ] }, { "hippodrome": "Cagnes-sur-Mer", "courses": 151, "partants": 1755, "bandes": [ { "bande": "le cinquième intérieur", "partants": 414, "taux_gagnant": 10.39, "taux_place": 28.5, "rapport_gagnant": 1.1902, "rapport_place": 1.1383, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 1.2, "ecarts_types_place": 1.64 }, { "bande": "le deuxième cinquième", "partants": 327, "taux_gagnant": 8.26, "taux_place": 23.55, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9733, "rapport_place": 0.9534, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.15, "ecarts_types_place": -0.49 }, { "bande": "le milieu du peloton", "partants": 313, "taux_gagnant": 8.31, "taux_place": 23.32, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9716, "rapport_place": 0.9381, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.15, "ecarts_types_place": -0.64 }, { "bande": "le quatrième cinquième", "partants": 327, "taux_gagnant": 6.12, "taux_place": 22.02, "rapport_gagnant": 0.7209, "rapport_place": 0.8915, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -1.54, "ecarts_types_place": -1.13 }, { "bande": "le cinquième extérieur", "partants": 374, "taux_gagnant": 9.36, "taux_place": 25.94, "rapport_gagnant": 1.0728, "rapport_place": 1.0321, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 0.44, "ecarts_types_place": 0.36 } ] }, { "hippodrome": "Vichy", "courses": 143, "partants": 1458, "bandes": [ { "bande": "le cinquième intérieur", "partants": 345, "taux_gagnant": 8.41, "taux_place": 27.83, "rapport_gagnant": 0.8391, "rapport_place": 1.0173, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -1, "ecarts_types_place": 0.2 }, { "bande": "le deuxième cinquième", "partants": 262, "taux_gagnant": 8.4, "taux_place": 30.53, "rapport_gagnant": 0.8714, "rapport_place": 1.137, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.68, "ecarts_types_place": 1.36 }, { "bande": "le milieu du 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"ecarts_types_gagnant": -1.83, "ecarts_types_place": -2.13 }, { "position": 14, "courses": 224, "taux_gagnant": 6.25, "taux_place": 15.63, "rapport_gagnant": 0.9362, "rapport_place": 0.7802, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.26, "ecarts_types_place": -1.65 }, { "position": 15, "courses": 149, "taux_gagnant": 5.37, "taux_place": 13.42, "rapport_gagnant": 0.8336, "rapport_place": 0.6946, "ecarts_types_gagnant": -0.53, "ecarts_types_place": -1.82 }, { "position": 16, "courses": 79, "taux_gagnant": 6.33, "taux_place": 17.72, "rapport_gagnant": 1.0141, "rapport_place": 0.9465, "ecarts_types_gagnant": 0.03, "ecarts_types_place": -0.23 } ] } ], "hippodromes_suivis": [ "Chantilly", "Deauville", "Saint-Cloud", "ParisLongchamp", "Compiègne", "Vichy", "Cagnes-sur-Mer", "La Teste", "Lyon-Parilly", "Clairefontaine", "Pornichet", "Marseille-Vivaux", "Fontainebleau", "Toulouse", "Marseille-Borély", "Lyon-La Soie", "Bordeaux - Le Bouscat", "Pau", "Dieppe", "Le Lion-d'Angers", "Mont-de-Marsan", "Dax", "Strasbourg", "Le Mans", "Le Croisé-Laroche", "Nantes", "Salon-de-Provence", "Tarbes", "Angers", "Nancy", "Senonnes-Pouancé", "Craon", "Vittel", "Argentan", "Châteaubriant", "Moulins", "Saint-Malo", "Évreux", "Aix-les-Bains", "Lignières", "Amiens", "Le Touquet", "Les Sables-d'Olonne", "Cholet", "Cavaillon", "Machecoul", "Agen", "Saint-Brieuc", "Hyères", "Prunelli-di-Fiumorbo", "Cluny", "Nîmes", "Châtillon-sur-Chalaronne" ], "avertissement": "Ces taux décrivent des centaines de courses passées, pas la prochaine. Le tirage au sort reste un tirage au sort, un bon cheval mal tiré reste un bon cheval, et la corde se regarde en second, après la forme, le terrain et la cote." }